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ITB Berlin 2026: New world order signals rising risk for global tourism

ITB Berlin 2026, Germany

Geopolitical Shifts and the Emergence of a New World Order: Strategic Implications for Tourism, ITB Berlin 2026, Germany

Germany – ITB Berlin (3–5 March 2026) is the world’s leading travel trade show and at this year’s event discussions took a sombre turn as former German politician Joseph Martin ‘Joschka’ Fischer, chairman of the advisory board at Joschka Fischer Consulting, delivered a thought-provoking keynote entitled Geopolitical Shifts and the Emergence of a New World Order: Strategic Implications for Tourism. He warned that the rules-based order is fading away and being replaced by a power-based system dominated by the US, China and, to a lesser extent, Russia – with India potentially next.

Fischer argued that the emerging world order is not in favour of tourism, highlighting the Gulf – which he referred to as ‘the gas station of the world economy’ – as a region in severe crisis with an almost unpredictable future. As a central aviation hub for global stopovers, instability in the Middle East has far-reaching implications. Referencing recent events, he noted how the once paradisiacal beach destination, Dubai, is now perceived through the lens of conflict.

This prompts many questions: will travellers retreat into domestic markets as a form of consumer protectionism, redrawing tourism maps around perceived safe zones? Or could prolonged instability accelerate the rise of dark tourism, as conflict itself becomes a site of curiosity and commerce?

For operators, the implication is clear. The reality of war is no longer abstract. Leaders were urged to re-assess investment timelines and destination positioning.

‘Customers will not pay to risk their lives,’ said Fischer, grounding the debate in a fundamental truth: security underpins demand. In this context, crisis response, risk management and transparent communication will become competitive differentiators.

While better days may come, the timeline is undefined. Fischer’s message to leaders was pointed: prepare for heightened insecurity and build strategies for a highly volatile world. For tourism, peace needs to be present, but that is no longer guaranteed.

Strategic opportunity

As a resilience exercise, re-imagine your businesses offerings in view of geopolitical volatility (flexible bookings, diversified revenues) as global risk reshapes demand

How South Korea is defying Asia’s declining birth rate trend

Together by Insung Yoon, South Korea

Asia – South Korea’s birth rate rose for a second consecutive year in 2025, with preliminary figures showing 254,000 births – the largest annual increase since 2010 (source: Newsweek).

The country’s fertility rate climbed to 0.80, up from 0.75 in 2024, driven primarily by women aged 30 to 34, who averaged 73.2 births per 1,000 women. Known regionally as Echo Boomers – children of South Korea’s earlier baby boom generation – are helping to slow the decline in one of the world’s lowest fertility rates.

The trend contrasts sharply with broader regional patterns: Japan recorded its lowest birth rate for the tenth consecutive year, while Singapore’s total fertility rate dropped to 0.87, falling below 1.0 for the third year running (source: Tokyo Weekender, Channel News Asia).

South Korea’s rising birth rate comes amid high living costs, changing attitudes to marriage and parenthood, and targeted government incentives including childcare subsidies, baby allowances and preferential mortgage rates.

As younger generations delay life milestones and birth rates shift, global markets are seeing new life stages emerge. Our Gen Z Global Youth Atlas report explores the unique attitudes and behaviours of young people in countries including South Korea, Japan and Singapore, helping brands and businesses better understand their future consumers.

Strategic opportunity

Build regional relevance by studying local attitudes to family, lifestyle and life stages – tailoring products, communications and experiences to better reflect how people live and plan their futures as key life stages change

Stat: UK Gen Z turn to trade work for security in the AI era

Photography by Tiger Lily

UK – Younger workers are fuelling renewed job growth across the construction and trade sectors as Gen Z seek steadier pay and roles perceived to be more resilient to automation. New data from HR platform Employment Hero shows Gen Z hiring significantly outpaced all other generations in January.

This echoes attitudes highlighted in our Gen Z Parents macrotrend report, where we found that many younger parents are increasingly supportive of children pursuing apprenticeships, entrepreneurship and trade careers over traditional office work.

Employment among workers born between 1997 and 2012 rose by 16.8% year on year, compared with growth of 6.7% for Gen X (born 1965–1980) and 7.1% for Boomers (born 1946–1964). The analysis draws on payroll data from more than 500 UK construction and trade businesses using Employment Hero’s platform, representing about 13,000 employees.

Wages in the sector also increased by 9.6% year on year in January based on a three-month rolling average. Employment Hero links the shift to younger workers prioritising immediate earnings and long-term job security, as AI adoption accelerates elsewhere.

This coincides with worsening youth unemployment, with the jobless rate for 16–24-year-olds reaching 16.1% in the three months to December, its highest level since early 2015.

Strategic opportunity

As people seek resilience in their careers, prioritise skills, services, products and pathways that emphasise human capability, practical value and long-term security